When the news dropped that James Cameron was helming another project, fans waited with bated breath. In 2009 the time had arrived for fans to experience Cameron’s Avatar, a long-term project of the legendary director known for Aliens and Titanic. Avatar made history as the highest-grossing film of all time and remains the highest-grossing film globally. This wasn’t much of a surprise for fans of Cameron. He had broken the record once before with his moving dramatization of Titanic.

During an interview with Total Film, the filmmaker recently spoke about the possibility of audiences not turning up for the upcoming sequel, Avatar: Way of the Water. Cameron stated:

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Although visually stunning, Avatar’s storyline was not complex and reflected many tales told before. At its heart, it was about the attempted colonization of a people or what some may more accurately pen imperialism. Some astute observers saw the nods to such films as Dances with Wolves or Pocahontas as they well should. In addition, as recorded in an archived article in The Hollywood Reporter, the director drew his influence from such films as Lawrence of Arabia, The Man Who Would Be King, The Emerald Forest, Medicine Man, The Mission, The Jungle Book, and Fern Gully.

“The market could be telling us we’re done in three months, or we might be semi-done, meaning: ‘Okay, let’s complete the story within movie three, and not go on endlessly,’ if it’s just not profitable … We’re in a different world now than we were when I wrote this stuff, even. It’s the one-two punch – the pandemic and streaming. Or, conversely, maybe we’ll remind people what going to the theater is all about. This film definitely does that. The question is: how many people give a s*** now?”

Cameron first announced a sequel in 2010. Now more than a decade later, the fulfillment of that promised sequel is nigh. While it seems highly unlikely that the long-awaited sequel could be a box-office flop, some factors could impact the film’s success.

The Sequel’s (Very) Delayed Release

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The most pertinent reason Avatar: Way of the Water could see a lower turnout than the first film is the time factor. Time can make or break a project. Many viewers have short-term memories when it comes to film. This is why it is always best to follow up on a story while it’s fresh in viewers’ minds.

However, It has been thirteen years since Avatar was released. And details have a way of slipping the mind of the general viewing audience after a decade has passed. The majority would have to sit through the first 162-minute flick to refresh their minds. That’s something only some are going to commit to. Attention spans have grown shorter, and there are too many other features to enjoy. For many moviegoers, anticipation has not only chilled. It’s about frozen.

Avatar: The Way of Water May Be a Thematic Rehash

     20th Century Studios

Avatar stands firm as a solid stand-alone film. However, although it was epic for what it was, a single question lingers, will a sequel work? Frankly, some movies are best told in one film. Another question that poses itself is whether viewers can expect a fresh take. From what we have seen from trailers, the threat to the Na’vi on Pandora seems a bit familiar. The addition of Jake and Neytiri’s family raises the stakes, however. And the Avatar sequels are expected to introduce new cultures and biomes.

Still, the possibility that the sequel’s storyline might be a rehash and rather rote could be enough to dull audiences on support.

Avatar 2 Is Most Likely on the Road to Success

Just as some factors point to a possible lower box office return, others point toward another possible success. First, the fact that Cameron sits in the director’s chair carries much weight. And when you are a beloved director, people come to see your movies. Secondly, the aesthetic of the first was bar none. Avatar was an exquisitely immersive film, and fans will want to see if Cameron can create the magic again.

Furthermore, Avatar: The Way of Water has an impressive cast that includes Zoe Saldana (Neytiri), Kate Winslet (Ronal), Sigourney Weaver (Kiri), Stephen Lang (Miles Quaritch), Sam Worthington (Jake Sully), and CCH Pounder (Mo’at) to name a few. The star power alone is enough to bolster those box office numbers.

While Avatar: Way of the Water may not do as well as the first installment, it will undoubtedly draw an impressive opening. With the first film’s incredible success, IMAX is hopeful and predicting full theaters. Imax CEO Richard Gelfond told Deadline:

And soon, we shall have the metrics as Avatar The Way of Water will debut in theaters on December 16, 2022.

“Avatar: The Way of Water has the potential to be a cultural phenomenon in the same way its predecessor was. And we are confident that Imax will take center stage.”